This weekend we head to Kansas Speedway, where Joe Gibbs Racing (JGR) and Hendrick Motorsports (HMS) will try to continue their dominant 2024 season. Outside of Daniel Suarez (Trackhouse) at Atlanta and Tyler Reddick (23XI) at Talladega, no driver outside of JGR or HMS has won.
Does the dominance continue this weekend at Kansas?
The Predictor vs. The Books
The Professor’s Predictor thinks so, as Kyle Larson, Denny Hamlin, and William Byron are atop Tier 1. They are followed by Martin Truex Jr., Tyler Reddick, Chase Elliott, and Ryan Blaney in Tier 2.
The books have a log jam at the top with six drivers sitting with less than 10 to 1 odds to win. And if you go a step further, only 11 drivers are within 20 to 1 odds to win. My first piece of advice for this weekend has to do with this log jam at the top, but first, let’s see who exactly is at the top.
Larson (+260), Hamlin (+425), Byron (+900), Truex Jr. (+950), Reddick (+700), and Christopher Bell (+750). Based on the Predictor, Ryan Blaney holds the most value as his odds to win are +3000.
So, how would I bet these favorites?
Outright Winner - Wait To Bet A Favorite
This week is unlike any other we’ve seen so far this year, and with the log jam at the top amongst the favorites, I could make an argument to bet any of them to win. Instead of randomly picking one, I will wait as long as possible, like until the end of Stage 2.
Live betting has been an integral part of my betting strategy this year, and I’ve noticed how the odds don’t change much amongst the favorites, even if they’re running up front. The books won’t offer any decent cash out to drivers favored by less than 10 to 1, so you’re really married to your favorite bet, whether it’s a winner or loser.
I will wait and see how the race plays out and see if I can’t narrow down the seven favorites to two or three. Then, based on the odds and how the race is shaping out, I will pick the one I like.
Head to Head - Brad Keselowski over Chris Buescher (-135)
In the 16 Next Gen races at 1.5-mile tracks, Brad Keselowski has outrun Chris Buescher nine times. Chris Buescher’s forte isn’t these intermediate tracks. Even though the RFK cars are usually running around each other every week, I like Keselowski here.
Kansas is typically a “favorites” race, meaning not a lot of surprises or longshots sneak up there and contend, so if you're going to pay the juice any week, I think this is the week. Pay the juice and win the bet with Keselowski.
Prop Bet - Michael McDowell OVER 21.5 Finishing Position (-120)
Michael McDowell is everybody’s favorite underdog. He’s great on road courses and superspeedways with a real shot to win at those places. Intermediate tracks are a different story. He holds a 21.1 AVG finish on all intermediate tracks since 2022, and a 22.8 AVG finish at Kansas alone.
Based on those numbers, the line of 21.5 is pretty spot on. However, I’m adding in Ford’s struggles this year and at Kansas the last four years into my handicap. Plus, McDowell hasn’t finished in the Top 20 since Bristol.
I’ll pay the juice and ride with McDowell having another tough weekend at Kansas.
Tampa Timms’ Season Record - +23.37 Units (29.28% ROI)
By Alex Timms
His friends call him Alex, but you can call him “Tampa Timms.” He’s a full-time producer and, part-time gambler, but his co-workers would tell you it’s the other way around. He once decided to stay on a boat and fire off bets, rather than hang out in the water sippin’ a cold beverage with his friends.
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