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The Value is With Chase Elliott This Weekend at Iowa

Another week, another repaved racetrack. Well, kind of. Iowa Speedway repaved the bottom grooves in both corners, leaving the top grooves to be paved AFTER this weekend’s Cup series race.

So, just like last weekend at Sonoma, a 50-minute practice on Friday will be huge to determine who will be fast on Sunday. However, there was a tire test held here last month, and based on recent tire tests at repaved racetracks, those who participate might have the advantage.

Before we dive into the tire test, let’s check out who The Professor likes on his Predictor.

The Predictor vs. The Books

No surprises at the top as Kyle Larson is the predicted winner for The Professor, followed by Denny Hamlin, Christopher Bell, Martin Truex Jr., Chase Elliott, Brad Keselowski, and William Byron to close out Tier 1. Tier 2 is Tyler Reddick, Joey Logano, Bubba Wallace, and Ross Chastain.

FanDuel and The Professor don’t totally agree this week. FanDuel has Christopher Bell as the favorite (+400) while Kyle Larson is behind him at +550. Three drivers hold immense value to win based on the Predictor; Chase Elliott (+1800), Bubba Wallace (+4600), and Ross Chastain (+2800).

Ross and Bubba are on the fringe of the top 10 on the Predictor, and neither driver lights it up at comparable tracks like Phoenix, New Hampshire, and Richmond.

The guy I’m centering my happiness around this weekend is Chase Elliott. Here are three reasons why:

The Tire Test Factor

Joey Logano showed us all how important tire testing at a newly paved racetrack is when he dominated North Wilkesboro. Brad Keselowski, Christopher Bell, and Kyle Larson participated in the tire test at Iowa last month.

When a Joe Gibbs Racing driver and a Hendrick Motorsports driver compete in a test, you best believe that information will be shared amongst the whole organization, which means I expect all eight cars to be extremely fast this weekend.

The Value is There

The Predictor has Chase Elliott finishing 5th, while the books have him 12th at 18/1 odds to win. Elliott hasn’t finished outside the Top 20 all season and has seven Top 10s in the last 10 races.

The beauty with Chase Elliott this weekend is there are tons of ways I’m looking to bet him. Right now, he’s +260 for a Top 5. In Chase’s eight Top 10 finishes, six of them have been Top 5s. This is the type of value I’m starting to recognize with drivers I love to finish Top 10.

Other drivers with value on a Top 5 over a Top 10 this week are Brad Keselowski and Tyler Reddick at +185.

It’s Time To Dominate

I gave you the stat of the week earlier - Chase Elliott hasn’t finished outside the Top 20 all year. He has a win at Texas and has been the most consistent driver all year. However, he’s only led 136 laps through 16 races.

It’s time for Chase Elliott to dominate a race. He arguably hasn’t dominated a race in two years, and I think the books are starting to price him appropriately based on that lack of dominance. He’s running too well for that race not to come soon; we’re riding him multiple ways this weekend.

Tampa Timms’ Season Record - +30.12 Units (23.41% ROI)


By Alex Timms

His friends call him Alex, but you can call him “Tampa Timms.” He’s a full-time producer and, part-time gambler, but his co-workers would tell you it’s the other way around. He once decided to stay on a boat and fire off bets, rather than hang out in the water sippin’ a cold beverage with his friends.


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