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I Bet These Two Longshots to WIN at Darlington



Darlington Raceway. She’s called “The Lady in Black” for a reason. The driver who can come home with the least amount of Darlington Stripes usually wins the race. It’s a track where, historically, the sport's biggest and brightest stars have shined. So, who does Dirty Mo Dough think can tame the Lady in Black? 


The Predictor vs. The Books


The Predictor has only two drivers in Tier 1 this week - Kyle Larson and Denny Hamlin. They’ve been head and shoulders above the rest, so no surprises here. The books agree as they have Larson and Hamlin as co-favorites at (+450). 


In Tier 2, we have Martin Truex Jr., Tyler Reddick, Chase Elliott, William Byron, and Joey Logano.


Logano is the biggest discrepancy here as the books have him at 13th best at +2200 odds. This weekend, we see a long list of favorites at the top, so I’m going to wait to bet on one of them live like I did last week at Kansas.  


So here are two long shots I’m betting to win this weekend at Darlington: 


Outright Winner - Chase Elliott (+2000)

First, let me start by saying Chase Elliott is NOT a long shot in the technical sense of the term. In the betting world, to me, a longshot is anyone above +1000 to win, and since this season we’ve seen a majority of the races won by guys under +1000 odds, I’m sticking to my logic. 


That said, Chase Elliott has had five top 5 finishes in the past six races. His average finish here in the Next Gen era is 13th, and if you take out his lone DNF, it moves to 5.8, which is the best among active drivers. 


I am putting a half unit on Chase to win outright.  


Outright Winner - Brad Keselowski (+1800)


Ford was .001 seconds from winning its first race of 2024. Not to mention the man who finished second was this guy’s teammate, Chris Buescher. Ford will eventually win a race this year, so why not this weekend? 


When I think of old, slick, worn-out race tracks, I think of veteran drivers who have tons of experience saving their tires and knowing when the right time to go for it is. One of those drivers that immediately comes to mind is Brad Keselowski.  


He was good at Bristol, where the tires wore out. Statistically, he runs well at Darlington. I think there’s value on the Fords in general and Brad/RFK have been the most consistent this season.  


BONUS Play - Alex Bowman - Outright Win (+6000) OR Top 10 (+160)

I mentioned on this week’s episode of Dirty Mo Dough that I’ve been riding Alex Bowman's top 10 bets for the last five weeks, and it’s cashed in four of them. So, if you’re giving me +125 for a top 10 this week, it’s an automatic play for me. Ride the streak until it ends! 


If you’re going to give me +3500 for a Hendrick Motorsports car to win, I’m going to take it every time. It’s not like Bowman has been running 30th every week. This line doesn’t make sense to me. He’s too talented, and the team is too good for him NOT to win a race this year.  


Tampa Timms’ Season Record - +20.16 Units (22.27% ROI)


 

By Alex Timms


His friends call him Alex, but you can call him “Tampa Timms.” He’s a full-time producer and, part-time gambler, but his co-workers would tell you it’s the other way around. He once decided to stay on a boat and fire off bets, rather than hang out in the water sippin’ a cold beverage with his friends.


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