After a summer of random winners and high drama, the NASCAR Playoff field of 16 drivers is set and heads to Atlanta to kick off its 10-week chase for the Championship. And with the parody of tracks hosting playoff races, this year could welcome even more surprise winners over the final 10 weeks of the season.
Historically, Atlanta Motor Speedway has hosted many marquee NASCAR races, but they’ve never hosted the opening round of the Playoffs. And with this new Superspeedway-style configuration, picking a winner will be just as hard as choosing one at Daytona or Talladega.
However, I have some drivers in mind who have nothing to lose and everything to gain. But first, let’s see what the Professor and the sportsbooks think.
The Predictor vs. The Books
I’m going to preface the Predictor by saying, this is the closest I’ve seen the field on the Predictor all year. Tier 1 features the trio of Ryan Blaney (+1200), Chase Elliott (+1300), and William Byron (+1300). No surprise that the sportsbooks have them as the favorites.
Tier 2 hosts 11 drivers, starting with Brad Keselowski (+1300), Daniel Suarez (+1700), Chris Buescher (+1700), Christopher Bell (+2400), Bubba Wallace (+3100), Kyle Busch (+1200), Denny Hamlin (+1400), Austin Cindric (+2200), Joey Logano (+1200), and Ross Chastain (+2000).
Based on the Predictor, the value lies on Christopher Bell (+2400) and Bubba Wallace (+3100), however, any driver you pick to win holds incredible value when the favorites are 12/1.
So who do I like to win? Well first off, I don’t think it’ll be a Playoff driver. I think most of the Playoff field will be conservative and focused on trying to finish the race. But I could see Playoff drivers like Harrison Burton, Chase Briscoe, Daniel Suarez, and Austin Cindric being aggressive and trying and steal a Round 1 win to advance them to Round 2.
Kyle Busch Outright Win - +1200 on FanDuel
Since the Olympic break, Kyle Busch has been one of the hottest drivers in the series, holding a 10.8 average finish over the stretch that includes a runner-up finish last week at Darlington.
Although Busch won’t be fighting for a championship, he still has his streak of 19 consecutive years with at least one win to try and extend. I think that’s a nice consolation prize for how this season has gone for Kyle.
As for Atlanta specifically, Kyle is in the top echelon of drivers as far as average running position and average finish, plus he finished third here in the spring. I love Kyle Busch to finish the job and get that win this weekend.
Ross Chastain Outright Win - +2000 on FanDuel
Another driver disappointed to not make the Playoffs is Ross Chastain. Chastain didn’t run well throughout the summer and that ultimately got him eliminated from Playoff contention, but there’s no doubt he was a casualty of “the summer of randomness.”
Chastain ranks in the top-four in laps led and average finish at the new Atlanta. His Trackhouse Racing teammate Daniel Suarez won this race in the spring, and Chastain has seen an improvement in speed over the last three weeks.
If Kyle Busch isn’t going to win, I wouldn’t be surprised if Chastain plays spoiler again like he did in Phoenix last year.
Chase Briscoe Outright Win - +3700 on FanDuel
Alright, alright, I know I said a non-Playoff driver was going to win, but I LOVE the aura surrounding this #14 team and Chase Briscoe. They had genuine speed at Darlington and deserved to win that race.
During his appearance on The Dale Jr. Download, he mentioned he could see this team having a similar Playoff run to his boss Tony Stewart’s back in 2011, where they were non-existent all season, snuck into the Playoffs, then rattled off five wins to win the championship.
I love that energy. The team is closing shop in 10 weeks, Briscoe is moving on to Joe Gibbs Racing next season, and they have full Ford support, I’m buying what he’s selling.
Tampa Timms’ Season Record - +21.56 Units (8.33% ROI)
By Alex Timms
His friends call him Alex, but you can call him “Tampa Timms.” He’s a full-time producer and, part-time gambler, but his co-workers would tell you it’s the other way around. He once decided to stay on a boat and fire off bets, rather than hang out in the water sippin’ a cold beverage with his friends.
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