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THREE DRIVERS TO HAMMER & FADE AT BRISTOL 




We’re back at “The Last Great Colosseum” this weekend, as the Truck Series and Cup Series head to Bristol for a double-header on the concrete. That’s right – we’re back on the concrete full-time at Bristol this year. 

 

There are two major factors that make this race difficult to handicap. First, we’ve only run two races on the concrete surface since the Next Gen car was introduced in 2022, and they were both run in the summer. We haven’t seen how the cooler spring conditions affect the racing with the car, if at all.  

 

Second, we don’t know if the preferred racing line will be the top or the bottom. Our fearless leader, Steve Letarte, broke down how the preferred racing line affects how teams set their cars up on this week’s episode of Dirty Mo Dough.  


The Predictor vs. The Books 


It was a rough week for Hendrick Motorsports (HMS) and Chevrolet at Phoenix. No doubt about it, they missed the mark. However, the Professor has three HMS Chevys in Tier 1 of the Predictor. Kyle Larson is at the top, with William Byron third and Chase Elliott fourth. Denny Hamlin ranks second, Ryan Blaney fifth, and Christopher Bell rounds out the Predictor’s Tier 1. 


For the most part, the books agree with the Predictor. Larson (+450) and Hamlin (+500) are the favorites, with Bell, Blaney, Byron and Elliott right behind them. So, are we hammering or fading the favorites? 


DRIVERS TO HAMMER 

Chase Elliott (+1200) 


If you've been listening to Dirty Mo Dough, you know t’s been a while since I’ve been high on Elliott heading into a weekend, but I like the value we’re getting with him here. In the two Next Gen races on the concrete surface, he finished second and seventh. He’ll be a target for me in head-to-head matchups, and I'll sprinkle some cash on him to win, too. 

 

Ty Gibbs (+2200) 

It’s not the value I would’ve liked on a guy who’s still looking for his first win, but I’m done ignoring the fact Ty Gibbs is knocking on the door of getting to Victory Lane. I think Bristol is a track where he can get it done. It’s the kind of track that rewards speed and talent, plus he’s shined here in all the lower series.



 

Michael McDowell (+4000), Top 10 (+195) 



I love McDowell this weekend and I don’t know why, to be honest. He just continues to impress in this Next Gen car. He had another top-10 finish last week at Phoenix, and in the two Next Gen races on the concrete surface, he finished 11th and sixth, respectively. The value is there and I love getting plus-money for a Top 10. I'm going with a tiny sprinkle on McDowell to win, but HAMMERING him for a Top 10. 

 

DRIVERS TO FADE 

Kyle Busch (+1800) 


Fading Kyle Busch at Bristol should put you in solitary confinement, however, the stats over the last two years don’t lie. Engine issues in 2022 dropped him to a 34th-place finish, and last year he finished 20th with Richard Childress Racing (RCR). Plus, RCR has had a tough start to the year, especially last week at Phoenix. I think you can get some favorable odds fading Busch this weekend.

 

Joey Logano (+1800) 


 I actually don’t hate taking Joey Logano at +1800, but I’m staying away from this one. He’s struggled to start out the year. I’m not convinced he’s not pressing a little too hard to end his 30-plus-race winless streak. The fact of the matter is Logano hasn’t finished a Next Gen race on concrete, which doesn’t make him somebody I want to bet.

 

Ryan Blaney (+450) 


I’m going to lead with a compliment: I love Blaney this year. I’ve bet him in some capacity almost every race this season and think he has the best shot since Jimmie Johnson to go back-to-back and win the Championship.

 

However, I’m playing the trends here and trying to get in front of his inevitable regression. He’s found a way to finish up front and higher than his average running position in three of the four races this year, but I wouldn’t say his car was dominant anywhere other than Atlanta. Despite being on the pole today, I think that will be the peak of the weekend for Blaney. 

 

Tampa Timms’ 2024 Season To-Date: 6-8 (+9.75 Units) 




 

 

By Alex Timms 

His friends call him Alex, but you can call him “Tampa Timms.” He’s a full-time producer, part-time gambler, but his co-workers would tell you it’s the other way around. He once decided to stay on a boat and fire off bets, rather than hang out in the water sippin’ a cold beverage with his friends.  

 

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