Martinsville was a great weekend for The Professor – he came out on top in two different Dirty Mo Dough side bets. Michael McDowell finished higher than Corey LaJoie, earning him a steak dinner from Steve Letarte. Austin Dillon failed to crack the Top 10 for Tampa Timms, so he owes The Professor a Dirty Mo sweatshirt.
We’re on to Texas this week, the first 1.5-mile track since Las Vegas in March. This will be the first time since 2019 we will run in the spring at Texas. Will that change things? Let’s find out and see who the books like and who The Professor likes.
The Predictor vs. The Books
The Predictor likes our usual suspects at the top: Kyle Larson, William Byron, Denny Hamlin, and Ryan Blaney. The books agree with Larson (+400) the odds-on favorite, Tyler Reddick (+600), then Hamlin (+650), Byron (+700), and Blaney (+850).
The books have 16 drivers within 37/1 odds and everybody else in the field is 60/1 or worse, including the seven-time champion, Jimmie Johnson. I haven’t seen a Cup Series field this separated in quite some time. So where can we find value?
This week, I’m focusing on the middle tier. Any driver with odds ranging from 12/1 to 16/1 is on my radar for an outright win.
Drivers to Hammer
Bubba Wallace (+1600)
The more I look at the betting card this weekend, the more I love Bubba Wallace. He won the pole and led 111 laps at this race last year, and he arguably should’ve won the race too. For lack of a better term, he whopped them and finished 3rd. Hard for me to believe he won’t replicate that same speed this weekend. I’m betting Bubba to win this Sunday.
Ross Chastain (+2000)
Steve Letarte said it best on this week’s episode of Dirty Mo Dough: you never go into the weekend thinking Chastain is the favorite. This weekend is no different; however, Texas is known for overtime restarts and the dominant car not always winning. Chastain is what I like to call a “watch out” guy. If there’s an overtime restart and he’s hunting for the win, WATCH OUT.
Chase Briscoe (+8500)
I gave you Briscoe’s win odds above; however, I don’t think he’s going to win and wouldn’t recommend betting him in that way. I have a long list of bets I like regarding Briscoe, though. He’s +240 for a Top 10, and he’s finished fifth and 10th here the last two years. He’s +290 and the underdog in a group bet with Suarez, Jones, and Gragson, whom he outperforms regularly. And finally, he’s +1800 to be the Top Ford in the race. I wouldn’t talk anybody off any of these bets, however, I’ve already bet him to win his group so that one is my pick. I think that’s the best play on the board this weekend.
Drivers to Avoid
Martin Truex Jr. (+900)
Texas is by far Martin Truex Jr.’s worst 1.5-mile track. In the NextGen era, he’s finished 31st and 17th with only 15 laps led. I talked earlier about how Chastain rarely dominates coming into the weekend, and, well, I feel like Truex is the opposite. I don’t think Truex’s recent track record here warrants this price.
Chris Buescher (+3700)
The Prosper, Texas, native doesn’t like racing in his home state. With an average finish of 22nd here, I don’t see things getting better for Christopher. If you’ve followed my picks all season long, you know how strong I’ve been on Buescher Top-10s and he’s made a lot of money for me. Just not this weekend - I’m backing the stats and science (shoutout science).
Kyle Busch (+2000)
Excuse my language, but what the f*** is he doing at +1800? With the way RCR has been performing, he should be in the 30-40/1 range. Earlier in the week, I liked Kyle because I thought the value on him would be insane. The No. 8 team has had success here recently and tends to run well here, but I just can’t justify betting anything RCR at this price. Maybe I’m still mad about Austin Dillon last week; who knows?
Tampa Timms’ Season Record - +27.38 Units (59% ROI)
By Alex Timms
His friends call him Alex, but you can call him “Tampa Timms.” He’s a full-time producer, part-time gambler, but his co-workers would tell you it’s the other way around. He once decided to stay on a boat and fire off bets, rather than hang out in the water sippin’ a cold beverage with his friends.
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