NASCAR heads to the Monster Mile this weekend, and the Dirty Mo Dough crew is looking to rebound after a tough couple of weeks at Texas and Talladega. Dover is one of two fully concrete tracks NASCAR visits this season, and I’m hoping it's a more predictable race than we’ve seen recently.
The Predictor vs. The Books
The Professor’s Predictor has Martin Truex Jr. as the winner this weekend, followed by Chase Elliott, Kyle Larson, Denny Hamlin, and William Byron. Tier 1 drivers are significantly higher than Tier 2 drivers, where Ross Chastain, Alex Bowman, Ty Gibbs, Ryan Blaney, Brad Keselowski, and Kyle Busch live.
The books are in agreement with The Professor, with Larson (+400), Truex Jr. (+650), Byron, Chastain, and Hamlin (+750) as the first wave of favorites.
I’ve had my first two losing races the past two weeks, so I’m due for a good weekend at Dover. I’ve crunched the numbers, and I’ve done the research, so here are the three bets I love heading into this weekend’s race.
Christopher Bell & Chase Elliott BOTH Top 10 (+230)
Bell’s odds to win have moved from 10/1 to 25/1 after his crash in qualifying. However, Bell has an average finish of fifth at Dover in two Next Gen races, plus has led 359 laps at Bristol during that stretch. Even with his crash, he’s in a fast Toyota and it’s hard for me to believe he’ll be in the back for a long period of time. I’m parlaying him with another concrete racetrack ace, Chase Elliott.
Elliott won here in 2022 and averages just under a sixth-place finish on concrete tracks with the Next Gen car - by far his best average finish at any type of track in the Next Gen car. His Top 10 price is -180, so again, we can’t bet at that price.
Parlaying the two together brings the price to an attractive +230, and I’m putting a full unit on this bet.
Alex Bowman Outright WIN (+1600)
It wasn’t long ago when Hendrick Motorsports finished 1-2-3-4 at Dover, with Bowman winning that race. The following year, Bowman finished fifth and that was the last time he has raced here.
I’ve been high on Bowman all year and we’ve cashed a lot of Top 10 and matchup bets with him so far this season. Now is the time he brings home the big payday - an outright win. His odds are the 10th best, but I think he has the greatest amount of value of any bet on the board. Bowman gets it done this weekend at Dover; I’m putting a half unit on him to win.
Prop Bet - Driver to WIN Stage 1 & Race (+200)
Driver to WIN Stage 2 & Race (+130)
One book offers amazing prop bets every week, and this prop bet is too good NOT to talk about. Dover tends to allow the dominant car to dominate. The long green-flag runs allow you to lap cars up to the mid-teens, and the slick concrete surface makes passing treacherous.
So long as your pit crew performs and the race isn’t infested with untimely cautions that affect pit strategy, the winner of either stage has a very good chance of winning the race.
The runner-up finisher in each of the last two races at Dover has won a stage. So, at the very worst, our guy will be in the hunt for the win.
Tampa Timms’ Season Record - +24.36 Units (40.42% ROI)
By Alex Timms
His friends call him Alex, but you can call him “Tampa Timms.” He’s a full-time producer and, part-time gambler, but his co-workers would tell you it’s the other way around. He once decided to stay on a boat and fire off bets, rather than hang out in the water sippin’ a cold beverage with his friends.
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