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We’re going road course racing this week, as NASCAR heads to the long 20-turn Circuit of the Americas (COTA). It’s the first of five road courses this year, down from seven in 2022 and six in 2023. 


There are two things to note that may affect how we handicap this race. First, road course specialists Shane Van Gisbergen (SVG) and AJ Allmendinger are in the field this weekend, both driving for Kaulig Racing.


Secondly, we will have stage break cautions from now on at all road course races in 2024. NASCAR experimented with no cautions in between stage breaks last year at the Indy GP and Watkins Glen, and let’s just say we’re glad stage break cautions are back this year. 

The Predictor vs. The Books 

The Professor has Tyler Reddick, last year's winner, atop the Predictor this week surrounded by the Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolets of Kyle Larson, Chase Elliott and William Byron. Tier 2 is where I think great value exists. The Professor has Michael McDowell, Chris Buescher, Christopher Bell, Ty Gibbs, Ross Chastain and Martin Truex Jr. rounding out his top 10. 

The books agree Tyler Reddick is the odds-on favorite (+400), followed by Chase Elliott (+800), SVG as a surprise third (+900), then William Byron and Christopher Bell (+1000).  

The biggest discrepancy has to do with our first HAMMER bet of the weekend; in fact, I’ve already placed this bet myself…. 

Chris Buescher Top 10 (+100) 

Grab it now while it’s hot because after practice and qualifying you might not be able to get a plus-price on Chris Buescher to finish in the top 10. His worst finish on a road course in the last 11 races is 11th.  

If you listened to this week’s episode of Dirty Mo Dough, you’ll know I hammered this bet on Thursday. I'm not worried if Buescher qualified mid-pack; he showed last week at a treacherous Bristol that he can climb through the field.  

AJ Allmendinger & Ross Chastain BOTH Top 10 (+200) 

You may have to shop around on different sportsbooks to find the best odds, however, I’d take these separate or as a parlay if your book offers it.  

The results on paper may not scream AJ Allmendinger is the road course ace we all know him to be here at COTA, however, he has won a road course race in two of the past three seasons. He SHOULD have two top-five finishes here, if it weren’t for a boot from the other guy I’ve paired him with in this Top-10 parlay. 

Ross Chastain did the ole two-for-one special two years ago to claim the win at COTA, knocking Allmendinger and Bowman out the way to win. On top of that, he finished fourth here last year and this seems to be his best road course on the schedule.  

BONUS TIP - Target Alex Bowman in Matchups 

There’s no hiding it, Alex Bowman hasn’t been the same since his back injury. However, he finished fourth last week at Bristol, the highest of the Hendrick Motorsports entries. I’m going off his success at COTA in the Next Gen car, when he’s finished second and third. There’s some head-to-head matchups on the board already that I like with value on Bowman. 

Tampa Timms Season Record - 9-12 (+18.53 Units) 


By Alex Timms 

His friends call him Alex, but you can call him “Tampa Timms.” He’s a full-time producer, part-time gambler, but his co-workers would tell you it’s the other way around. He once decided to stay on a boat and fire off bets, rather than hang out in the water sippin’ a cold beverage with his friends. 



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