Chaotic and unpredictable: two words that describe the infield partying at Talladega Blvd. this weekend. But on track, Talladega is also known for its chaotic, unpredictable finishes and underdog winners. However, it’s a bit of an inaccurate depiction based on recent events.
This week on Dirty Mo Dough, the Professor laid out this nugget: the last true “underdog” winner at Talladega was Aric Almirola in 2018, and even then, he was driving for a top-tier team in Stewart-Haas Racing. The previous two underdog winners at Talladega were Ricky Stenhouse Jr. in 2017 and David Ragan driving the No. 34 for Front Row in 2013.
The Predictor vs. The Books
The books like William Byron, Ryan Blaney and Brad Keselowski this weekend, as the trio are co-favorites at +1000 odds. Joey Logano, Chase Elliott and Denny Hamlin are right there at +1100 odds.
The Predictor agrees with the books with Byron at the top followed by Elliott, Blaney and Hamlin in Tier 1. Nine drivers make up Tier 2 of the Predictor headlined by Bubba Wallace and Kyle Larson.
There are two discrepancies between the books and the Predictor: Brad Keselowski, a co-favorite on the books, is 13th on the Predictor and almost a Tier 3 driver. Kyle Larson is sixth on the Predictor but only has the 11th-best odds at +1900.
So how am I betting Talladega? Two words – low volume. But here are three bets I will be making before the weekend:
Top Chevy - Chase Elliott & Top Ford - Ryan Blaney (+2800)
Blaney and Elliott are the best two drivers statistically at Talladega. Blaney has won here three times and Elliott has won here twice. My only fear is they both will be fighting for the win, and one might be wrecked trying to go for it. Either way, this is insane value for the two best drivers at this track.
Bet Joey Logano to WIN, Then CASH OUT During the Race
What’s better than cashing a winner? Cashing multiple winners! For this strategy, I’m targeting drivers who consistently lead laps and want to stay out front.
Joey Logano is one of the more aggressive superspeedway racers out there and is on record saying he wants to lead and control the race. The strategy is to place a win bet on Joey, wait until he’s in the lead, and see what your sportsbook offers as a cash-out option.
If you see anything significantly positive in return, CASH OUT. You may not see a great number until Stage 2 or even Stage 3, but I would recommend taking the sure profit over waiting until the end. A crash is what we’re trying to avoid.
Other drivers I like for this strategy are Erik Jones, Bubba Wallace and Ross Chastain, but you could try this with anyone you think you’ll see up front early.
Todd Gilliland Outright Winner (+4500)
Gilliland is a serious longshot at this price, but statistically speaking, this is one of his best tracks. Gilliland has led laps at both drafting tracks this year and has led the second most laps overall by any Ford driver. This race has to be circled on Gilliland’s calendar as one of his only real hopes to win and make the playoffs. I like the odds and the stats to back it up here.
Tampa Timms’ Season Record - +25.86 Units (47% ROI)
By Alex Timms
His friends call him Alex, but you can call him “Tampa Timms.” He’s a full-time producer and, part-time gambler, but his co-workers would tell you it’s the other way around. He once decided to stay on a boat and fire off bets, rather than hang out in the water sippin’ a cold beverage with his friends.
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