After weeks of wild races and wet conditions, we’re finally back to some predictability this weekend at Pocono Raceway. At least that’s what we’re hoping for.
Seven of the last 11 Pocono races have been won by either Kyle Busch or Denny Hamlin, so a longshot, big-money winner might not be in the cards this weekend. However, I believe there’s some value in some longshot Top 10 odds this week.
First, let's look at who the Professor likes this weekend and who the books like.
The Predictor vs. The Books
Denny Hamlin has won seven times at Pocono. He’s so good here that he’s the only driver in Tier 1 of the Professor’s Predictor model.
Kyle Larson, Chase Elliott, William Byron, Brad Keselowski and Martin Truex Jr. make up Tier 2. Kyle Busch headlines Tier 3, the highest he’s been in weeks on the Predictor.
The Books agree as they have Hamlin (+450) as the favorite, followed by Larson (+550), Christopher Bell (+700), Tyler Reddick (+800), Truex Jr. (+850), and Byron (+1000).
It’s hard to argue against betting on Denny Hamlin outright, even at +450. However, there are a couple of drivers with Top 10 odds longer than Hamlin’s win odds I’d rather take a shot with.
Bubba Wallace Top 10 (+160)
As we get closer to the regular season finale at Darlington, drivers at or around the cut line will be facing tough strategy calls: going for the win or going for points. When I look at Bubba Wallace, he’s 45 points below the cut line and still has time to play the points game.
Looking at Bubba’s Pocono stats, he has finished 8th and 11th in two Next Gen starts here, right on our number of a Top 10. Combined with the overall speed Toyota has shown here in years past, this will make my card this weekend.
Erik Jones Top 10 (+350)
We’ve been bullish on Dirty Mo Dough to “fade the back injury” any time it is applicable. Erik Jones hurt his back at Talladega, missed the following two races, and hasn’t finished better than 13th since.
Pocono is statistically one of Jones’ best tracks, sporting an average finish of 9th with Legacy Motor Club. Another Toyota team that has shown speed of late, I can see Jones sneaking into the Top 10 this weekend.
Michael McDowell Top 10 (+460)
I’m not high on the Fords this weekend. Pocono is a huge 2.5-mile track with super long straightaways that require a lot of horsepower and downforce and I’m not sure if Ford has figured all that out with the new Dark Horse body.
However, I’d take a flier on McDowell. He’s arguably the third-best Ford driver any given week and is constantly running between 8th and 16th. I’d even sprinkle a little bit on McDowell Top Ford at +2500.
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. Top 10 (+550)
Here is my Best Bet of the Week. The past two seasons, Ricky has finished 18th and 7th at Pocono, and in the past four races he has three Top 10s. He’s also a new dad, which I’m always high on from a vibes standpoint.
He’s got dad strength now, he’s running well and he runs well at Pocono. The stars are aligning for this play to cash.
Tampa Timms’ Season Record - +33.52 Units (19.35% ROI)
By Alex Timms
His friends call him Alex, but you can call him “Tampa Timms.” He’s a full-time producer and part-time gambler, but his co-workers would tell you it’s the other way around. He once decided to stay on a boat and fire off bets, rather than hang out in the water sippin’ a cold beverage with his friends.
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