This Sunday at Martinsville will be a special day as Hendrick Motorsports celebrates the 40th anniversary of its first victory. There’s no doubt emotions will be high in the HMS camp, but does that affect how I’m betting on the field this weekend?
The Predictor vs. The Books
This week the Predictor only has two drivers in Tier 1, Denny Hamlin and Kyle Larson. Christopher Bell, Ryan Blaney, Martin Truex Jr., William Byron, and Joey Logano take up Tier 2, with Chris Buescher, Chase Elliott and Chase Briscoe just a little behind in Tier 3.
The books must be listening to Dirty Mo Dough because, for the most part, they agree with The Professor and his Predictor. So where can we find value this weekend at Martinsville? Here are three places to find value for your betting card:
Bet The Chevys Early and Often
This weekend marks the 40th anniversary of Hendrick Motorsports' life-changing win at Martinsville with Geoff Bodine. We all know the story: they were a week away from closing the doors for good, Bodine goes out and wins the race, and 40 years later we’re betting them 10 ways from Sunday.
All four Hendrick cars will be sporting special paint schemes to commemorate the occasion. If you’re a Hendrick Motorsports driver who wants to do something special for Rick Hendrick, you go out and win this race.
My favorite bet on the board – in fact, I’ve already bet this – is Chevy as the Winning Manufacturer (+255). I just don’t get how they have the longest odds to win of the three manufacturers. Ford hasn’t won yet this year while the Chevys have won four races already; the most of any manufacturer.
Top-10 Parlay Combinations to Watch
I’ve had some success in recent weeks betting multiple driver Top-10 parlays, so let’s see who has value this week. My strategy has been not to just take two heavy favorites and pay the juice, but to combine a favorite with a fringe Top-10 guy and get a great plus-money price.
The first combination I’m looking at is Joey Logano and Chase Elliott (+100). A little higher of a price than I would like, but the Predictor has both these two finishing in the Top-10. Both drivers have had a ton of success here and I loved how they performed last weekend at Richmond.
The next combination I’m looking at is a Tampa Timms special. Chase Briscoe and Chris Buescher (+400). I love finding two fringe Top-10 drivers and betting them together. I guess you can say I love to stress myself out for four hours every Sunday.
Chase Briscoe holds the third-best average finish at Martinsville in the Next Gen era, while Chris Buescher is a Top-10 machine. To triple your money, I am hammering this bet.
The last Top-10 combination I love is Alex Bowman and Bubba Wallace (+300). My reasoning is simple: both drivers have won here before, whether that’s in a lower series or not means nothing to me, and both have had a pretty solid start to the year.
Dirty Mo Dough Side Bet - Corey LaJoie or Michael McDowell?
We have our first Dirty Mo Dough side bet of the year! In this matchup, it’s The Professor vs. The Crew Chief, Steve Letarte.
The Bet: A steak dinner at the first NBC race this season. If Steve wins, The Professor pays for the whole booth. If The Professor wins, the boys and girls at The Professor’s company, Racing Insights, are eating well.
The stakes are simple: who finishes higher between Corey Lajoie and Michael McDowell?
From what I can see at the moment, there is no official head-to-head matchup between the two, so if you want to play along, I recommend challenging your betting buddies, neighbors, girlfriend, wife, etc.
Tampa Timms’ Season Record - 16-20 (+20.75 Units)
By Alex Timms
His friends call him Alex, but you can call him “Tampa Timms.” He’s a full-time producer, part-time gambler, but his co-workers would tell you it’s the other way around. He once decided to stay on a boat and fire off bets, rather than hang out in the water sippin’ a cold beverage with his friends.
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