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3 Prop Bets to HAMMER for Phoenix:

NASCAR heads to its first short track of the season and the site where a champion will be crowned later this year: Phoenix Raceway. This weekend, NASCAR will also unveil its new short-track package in hopes of improving the racing at short tracks. 


For all the details on what the new package entails and what we might see, Steve Letarte breaks it down on this week’s episode of Dirty Mo Dough. You can also watch the show on our NEW YouTube channel.  

The Predictor vs. The Books 

This week, The Professor has the usual players at the top of the predictor model. Ryan Blaney is the favorite with William Byron not far behind and Kyle Larson and Joey Logano round out Tier 1. 


Tier 2 has last fall's winner Ross Chastain followed by three Joe Gibbs Racing Toyotas – Martin Truex Jr., Denny Hamlin and Christopher Bell


For the most part, the sportsbooks agree with The Professor. Seven of the top eight favorites are in the predictor’s top eight. The only discrepancy is Kyle Busch (+1000), who is ranked 13th on the predictor and is ahead of Joey Logano in win odds. 


Number of Fords in Top 10 - UNDER 3.5 (+100) 

Number of Chevys in Top 10 - OVER 3.5 (+110) 


This prop bet may not be available on every sportsbook, so shop around and find it because I feel very strongly about these bets. Let’s break them down individually, starting with the Fords: 


The predictor has two Fords in Tier 1, but doesn’t show back up until the 12th and 14th spots in Tier 3. Ryan Blaney and Joey Logano carry the Ford camp at Phoenix. You can sprinkle in a Chase Briscoe win back in 2022, but that’s it for the Fords. 


The RFK cars didn’t show the same speed last week, and I need to see more from the SHR cars to call them consistent Top 10 favorites. Realistically, I think this line should be 2.5, not 3.5. 


As for the Chevys, I think the wrong side is favored here. You have Kyle Larson and William Byron who dominate the statistical categories at this track, and Ross Chastain who spanked the field here last fall.  


All we need is one more Chevy out of this group to have a solid day and we’re cashing a winning ticket, whether that be Chase Elliott, Kyle Busch, Alex Bowman, Austin Dillon, or Daniel Suarez.  


Chevys over 3.5 in the Top 10 is a HAMMER bet. 

Most Laps Led by Any Driver - OVER 150.5 (-115) 


I’ll keep this one short and sweet. In the last four Phoenix races, here’s the number of the most laps led by any driver:  


  • 143 (Spring 2022) 

  • 187 (Fall 2022) 

  • 157 (Fall 2023) 

  • 201 (Spring 2023) 


This race tends to have long green-flag runs and with what we’ve seen from the previous short-track package with the Next Gen car, the leader is hard to pass. If that trend continues, I’m getting out of the water, onto the boat, and hammering this bet. 


Since I know some of those prop plays aren’t available everywhere, I wanted to steer some of you in the right direction for the more conventional bets, like winners, Top 10s, matchups, etc. 


The First Pit Box is King – Bet on Denny Hamlin 


The Professor dropped this bomb on Dirty Mo Dough this week: the team with Pit Stall No. 1 has won three of the last seven races and has finished inside the Top 7 in the last 17. Phoenix gives you arguably the best pit box advantage in the league.  


Denny Hamlin qualified on pole for Sunday’s race and will have Pit Stall No. 1, I’m hammering Denny to win, Top 5, and Top 10. Some trends you just have to follow. 


Spire is Fast 


Spire Motorsports looked fast last week, and I’m sold. Put the fact they’ve won the last two Truck Series races aside, both Corey LaJoie and Carson Hocevar are wheelmen and – if they don’t overdrive it – can get more than what the car may be capable of. 


I like the mojo in that building, and I like them in head-to-head matchups. There’s a team matchup of Spire against Front Row I particularly like. 


Favorites are Favored for a Reason 


Phoenix rarely produces a “surprise” winner. Maybe Chase Briscoe in 2022 is the most recent example, but Stewart-Haas Racing was performing well that year and it was the fourth-ever race in the Next-Gen era. 


The favorites should do well this weekend and compete for the win. Stick to betting them as winners and stay away from any crazy long shots. 




Online sports betting becomes legal in North Carolina on Monday, March 11, but you can register for an account NOW. Click the link below to find the best promo deals for each sportsbook, including our partner, FanDuel. Sign up today and you’ll be ready to bet on Monday! 




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