They say Virginia is for lovers and I’ve got plenty of Top-10 bets I love as NASCAR heads to Richmond Raceway this weekend. Fresh off a dominating win at COTA, William Byron remains in Tier 1 of the Professors Predictor Model in fourth. So, who are the three drivers ahead of him?
The Predictor vs. The Books
Toyota dominates Tier 1 of the Predictor this week, with Martin Truex Jr. and Denny Hamlin on the front row, followed by Ryan Blaney, Byron, Kyle Larson, and Christopher Bell. Tier 2 has a season-high seven drivers highlighted by Joey Logano, Ross Chastain, Chase Elliott, and the two RFK cars of Brad Keselowski and Chris Buescher.
The books agree with the Professor; it’s a good old-fashioned Virginia lovefest for the Toyotas at the top, with Bell, Hamlin, Truex Jr., and Ty Gibbs. And that’s what I want to focus on.
The Predictor has Ty Gibbs 15th in Tier 3, while the books have him the fourth favorite at +850 to win and -230 for a Top 10. By those lines, the books are telling me they’re not going to get burned on Ty Gibbs’ first Cup Series win. They’re begging you to take the juice.
Gibbs is second in points and has five top-10 finishes in races this season. He’s off to an incredible start and I’d love to continue to ride this hot streak, however, the books make it nearly impossible. So, who am I riding with this weekend?
Joey Logano To WIN (+1600)
It hasn’t been the ideal start to the season for Joey Logano, and you could argue the last calendar year hasn’t been ideal for Logano. He hasn’t won a race since March 2023 at Atlanta. However, if there’s a track where Joey Logano can get it done, it’s Richmond.
With two wins and 18 Top-10s in 29 starts, I’ll take Joey’s track record at Richmond over his recent performance. The only thing that worries me is Team Penske is notoriously a short-run team and Richmond is notorious for longer green-flag runs.
If there’s a late-race caution or an overtime restart and Logano is up there, watch out.
Austin Dillon Top-10 (+550)
Statistically speaking, Richmond is one of Austin Dillon’s best tracks. With six top-10s and 56 laps lead (both second highest in his career at a single track), if there’s a track I’m looking to bet on Austin Dillon, it’s Richmond.
With the top-13 drivers all laying -135 or higher, I love the value here. I’m looking to take a shot with some drivers with plus-money Top-10 prices with a good track history at Richmond and Austin fits the mold perfectly.
Brad Keselowski AND Chris Buescher BOTH Top-10 (+100)
If one of the RFK cars runs well, usually the other one does too. Compared to their individual prices that are heavily juiced for a Top-10, this parlay is where I find value. Keselowski finished sixth and Buescher won last time we were here. I like combining them both and getting the even-money price.
Tampa Timms’ Season Record - 12-13 (+17.25 Units)
By Alex Timms
His friends call him Alex, but you can call him “Tampa Timms.” He’s a full-time producer, part-time gambler, but his co-workers would tell you it’s the other way around. He once decided to stay on a boat and fire off bets, rather than hang out in the water sippin’ a cold beverage with his friends.
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